sexta-feira, 19 de novembro de 2010

Get Bold, Barak

Get Bold, Barack
Ouse, Barack
By ROGER COHEN
texto traduzido: Viomundo

WASHINGTON — I was among the early and strong supporters of Barack Obama. America was stuck and it seemed to me he could take the country forward into the 21st century, which began so tragically in downtown New York and here in the nation’s capital. Like many, at midterm, I’m struggling with my disappointment.

Washington — Estive entre os primeiros e maiores apoiadores de Barack Obama. Os Estados Unidos estavam entrevados e me pareceu que ele poderia levar o país adiante no século 21, que começou tão tragicamente em Nova York e aqui na capital da Nação. Como muitos, na metade do mandato, estou enfrentando minha decepção

I’ve asked myself: Would Hillary Clinton, experienced and attuned to blue-collar America, have been stronger and more capable of lifting the national mood? I’ve thought to myself: Is it unfair to feel this disillusionment given the scale of Obama’s inherited problems? And I’ve wondered, given the visceral disrespect for the president from the Tea Party — a foul scorn full of innuendo that skirts the boundaries of racism — whether Obama could have done anything to reach across the aisle?

Já me perguntei: será que Hillary Clinton, experiente e ligada aos Estados Unidos blue-collar [nota do Viomundo: trabalhadores de colarinho azul, em geral de classe média baixa] teria sido mais forte e mais capaz de levantar o moral nacional? Já me perguntei: será injusto sentir desilusão com a escala dos problemas herdados pelo Obama? E me perguntei, dado o desrespeito visceral pelo presidente que vem do Tea Party — um desprezo mal cheiroso, cheio de sugestões que beiram o racismo — se Obama poderia ter feito qualquer coisa para se aproximar dos adversários?

To all these questions, at different times, I’ve had different answers. No, says one voice, get over it, he’s doing the best he could to lift America from the double whammy of war and economic meltdown. He’s smart and curious — and, anyway, just consider the mystical-nationalist-insular alternative.

Para todas estas perguntas, em momentos diferentes, tive diferentes respostas. Não, diz uma voz, esqueça, ele está fazendo o que pode para tirar os Estados Unidos de duas pancadas — da guerra e do derretimento econômico. Ele é inteligente e curioso — e, de qualquer forma, é preciso considerar a alternativa mística-insular-nacionalista.

Oh yeah, says another, he’s too cool a customer, a beguiling construct more than flesh and blood, an empty vessel for a misplaced idealism, a politician averse to pressing the flesh (and what else is politics?), a man who — not for nothing — tilts his chin upward when he speaks.

Ah, sim, diz outra resposta, ele é muito “cool”, uma construção mais do que uma pessoa de carne e osso, uma nave vazia para carregar idealismo, um político que não gosta de se relacionar com os eleitores (e o que mais é a política?), um homem que — não por nada — levanta o queixo quando fala.

Back and forth go the voices, but there’s no getting away from the disappointment. This president feels flat — and somehow not quite genuine. He should place above his bed the words of Jonathan Alter: “Logic can convince but only emotion can motivate.”

As vozes vão e vem, mas não tem como me afastar da desilusão. Este presidente parece vazio — e às vezes nem mesmo genuíno. Ele deveria colocar sobre a cama as palavras de Jonathan Alter: “A lógica pode convencer mas apenas a emoção pode motivar”.

On arriving in New York from London, I went to a party on the Upper East Side. It was a well-heeled crowd, almost all Obama supporters a couple of years back. “The guy’s a phony,” one guest said. “We need a Bloomberg, somebody who can manage,” said another, referring to the billionaire mayor of New York. “All this Clinton nostalgia, it’s because Obama is a loner, not interested in people,” said a third.

Ao chegar a Nova York vindo de Londres, fui a uma festa no Upper East Side [nota do Viomundo: reduto dos liberais de Nova York, onde morei na 83 com a Segunda, nos anos 80]. Era uma multidão de gente bem de vida, quase toda formada por apoiadores de Obama há alguns anos. “Ele é uma enganação”, um convidado disse. “Precisamos de um Bloomberg, alguém que saiba gerenciar”, disse outro, se referindo ao prefeito bilionário de Nova York. “Toda esta nostalgia em torno do Clinton é causada porque Obama é um solitário, não tem interesse nas pessoas”, disse um terceiro.

I was a struck by how people aren’t sure where Obama’s headed. There’s no narrative to the presidency. It was about believable change. Now the president seems less a passionate change agent than a careful calculator unsure of his core beliefs. In London, you know what Prime Minister David Cameron is about: rowing back the state and slashing the deficit. Agree or disagree, there’s a narrative. It helps.

Fiquei surpreso pela fato de que as pessoas não sabem qual é o caminho desejado por Obama. Não existe narrativa nesta presidência. Era sobre mudança em que se podia acreditar. Agora o presidente parece menos apaixonado pela ideia de ser um agente de mudança e mais um calculista incerto de suas crenças principais. Em Londres, sabemos o que o primeiro-ministro David Cameron quer: reduzir o estado e cortar o déficit. Concorde ou não, é a narrativa. Ajuda.

Another foreign leader came to mind, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, now about to leave office after an extraordinary presidency. Here are two outsider politicians with lullaby-like names and the kinds of faces not previously seen on their nations’ banknotes, breaking molds of race or class. But there the resemblance ends.

Outro líder estrangeiro do qual me lembrei, o presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva do Brasil, que agora está próximo de deixar o poder depois de uma presidência extraordinária. Aqui estão dois políticos de fora do círculo de poder, com nomes fáceis de pronunciar e com rostos diversos dos que apareciam nas notas do dinheiro de suas nações, quebrando modelos de raça ou classe. Mas a comparação termina aí.

Lula proved all of a piece — one of eight children from the impoverished far north of Brazil, a former steelworker who repaired social fracture in one of the world’s most unequal societies. Obama has so far failed that critical authenticity test.

Lula experimentou de tudo — um de oito filhos do norte empobrecido do Brasil, um ex-operário metalúrgico que reparou a fratura social de uma das sociedades mais desiguais do mundo. Obama até agora fracassou no teste crítico de autenticidade.

There was an anti-establishment frisson to Obama, the black man who battled to overcome prejudice and America’s “original sin” to win the nation’s highest office. Yet he has revealed himself as an elite product of America’s elite schools, a politician who built his image with great intelligence but shows little taste for the nitty-gritty. Bipartisanship, when it’s not just oratory, begins with small gestures.

Havia um frisson anti-establishment no Obama, o homem negro que batalhou para superar preconceito e o “pecado original” dos Estados Unidos para conquistar o cargo mais importante do país. Ainda assim ele se revelou um produto da elite e das escolas de elite dos Estados Unidos, um político que construiu sua imagem com grande inteligência mas mostra pouco apetite pelos detalhes. Bipartidarismo, quando não é apenas oratória, começa com pequenos gestos.

I was talking to a Democratic Party donor, a Kansas City businessman. He said he’s given over $30,000 to Obama — and not a word of thanks. He was irritated. Lots of people think this president is too smug to write thank-you notes or make quick courtesy calls.

Estive conversando com um pequeno doador do Partido Democrata, um empresário de Kansas City. Ele deu 30 mil dólares para Obama e não recebeu uma nota de agradecimento. Está irritado. Muita gente acha que o presidente é muito convencido para escrever notas de agradecimento ou fazer chamadas de cortesia.

After the inevitable midterm defeat, Obama needs to make some decisions. He’s stuck on the 20-yard line in domestic and foreign policy. The facile attacks on “fat-cat bankers” have to end. They don’t convince the left and they infuriate the right. Prosecute, by all means, but don’t rail. And remember that Americans get good housekeeping in the end. One $787 billion fiscal injection is enough.

Depois da derrota inevitável nas eleições do meio de mandato, Obama precisa tomar algumas decisões. Ele está preso na defesa nas questões domésticas e de política externa. Os ataques fáceis nos “banqueiros gordos” precisam acabar. Eles não convencem a esquerda e deixam a direita furiosa. Processe-os, por todos os meios, mas deixe de falar. E lembre que os americanos tiveram uma boa limpeza doméstica. Uma injeção fiscal de 787 bilhões de dólares é suficiente.

Americans are trying to de-leverage. They’ll follow a president who says extending tax cuts for the rich is madness. They might buy a consumption tax. But the president has to lead.

Os americanos estão tentando se livrar das dívidas. Eles seguirão um presidente que diz que estender os cortes de impostos para os ricos é loucura [nota do Viomundo: herança deixada por George W. Bush]. Os americanos podem até aceitar impostos sobre o consumo. Mas o presidente precisa liderar.

Obama is confronting an international conviction that he’s hesitant. The agonizing review that led to the Afghan surge left an impression of uncertainty. In the end we got what some have called the Groucho Marx Hello, I Must be Going! plan, a brief reinforcement to be reversed in time for the 2012 campaign. In the Middle East, too, domestic politics have trumped change, with resulting equivocation and familiar paralysis.

Obama está enfrentando uma convicção internacional de que é hesitante. A revisão da estratégia que levou ao aumento das tropas no Afeganistão deixou uma impressão de incerteza. No final recebemos o que alguns chamaram de plano do Groucho Marx — Alô, estou de saída — um reforço que será revertido a tempo da campanha de 2012. No Oriente Médio, também, a política doméstica evitou mudanças, resultando em erros e a familiar paralisia.

Boldness characterized Obama’s campaign; only that will get him re-elected in 2012. He needs to invigorate his team with doers rather than thinkers. He needs to become serious about balancing the budget. He needs a foreign policy that reflects a changed world not a churlish Congress.

A ousadia marcou a campanha de Obama; só ela poderá reelegê-lo em 2012. Ele precisa revigorar sua equipe com “fazedores” em vez de “pensadores”. Ele precisa encarar com seriedade o equilíbrio do orçamento. Ele precisa de uma política externa que reflita um mundo em mudança, não um Congresso dividido.

And he must admit to himself that perhaps the disappointed are not misguided but rational, even scientific — words he likes

E ele precisa admitir que talvez os decepcionados com ele não são mal aconselhados, mas racionais e até mesmo científicos — palavras das quais ele tanto gosta.

quarta-feira, 3 de novembro de 2010

sexta-feira, 22 de outubro de 2010

Climate Change: Breaking the "Political Consensus"


The Science of Climate Change: What does it Really Tell Us?
by Andrew Gavin Marshall

The purpose of this report is to examine the science behind climate change so as to better understand the issue at hand, and thus, to be able to make an informed decision on how to handle the issue. The primary aim here is to examine climate change from a perspective not often heard in media or government channels; that of climate change being a natural phenomenon, not the result of man-made carbon emissions.

The “Science” of Consensus

When addressing the issue of climate change, it is important to understand that climatic change is an important field of study in science. However, it is not an exact science, like all sciences. Our understanding of the climatic sciences is always changing, just as our understanding of all sciences changes. If our understanding of science does not change, we would still think that the Earth was flat and the Sun revolved around our little planet. When these great achievements in science were first discovered, the scientists who discovered them were attacked, denounced, or even imprisoned.

There is an enormous political, social and economic interest in a scientific consensus, because it determines our understanding of our environment and all that is in it, including humanity, itself. A challenge to a perceived consensus is a challenge to all the powers in human society, as it can take a person’s understanding of the world we live in, and flip it upside down. This encourages people to think “outside the box,” fosters creativity and to be critical thinkers. This can ultimately threaten any power structure, as people may come to understand the forces that seek to control our lives. A consensus is an amazing tool in the hands of elites to control and manipulate people. And challenging a consensus is an amazing tool for people to remain free and independent thinkers.

This does not mean that any perceived consensus is inaccurate or completely manipulated. But it is important to understand how such a consensus can be used. It is also vital to understand that without questioning and challenging a scientific consensus, science would never advance. The key to scientific discovery is being able to change your perspective as the science changes. This is why debate on climate change must not be simply reduced to a one-sided debate; those who “know there is a problem,” and those who are “deniers.” All sides must be heard, so that we can come to a better understanding of the issue.

We hear consistently the one side of the debate, that climate change is caused by increased Carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, and that humans are the greatest contributor of this toxic greenhouse gas, and thus, the greatest contributor to climate change, and that there will be catastrophic consequences as a result. I hope to give voice to the other side of the debate.

A Brief Climate History

First of all, it is important to note that climate change is not new. There has always been climate change, and there will always be climate change. After all, there was a period known as the Ice Age, which was a long-term period of reduction in global temperatures. This expanded the continental ice sheets and glaciers. The Greenlandand Antarctic ice sheets were created in this period. The ice age left its imprint upon our environment, forming valleys, fjords, rock formations, and the like as glaciers advanced across the continents. As they receded when the ice age passed, it left the landscape altered and free for plant growth and life to flourish. The Great Lakes betweenCanada and the United States were carved out by ice. Following the Ice Age, the Halocene period began roughly 12,000 B.C. All human civilization has occurred within the Halocene period.

During the Halocene period, there was both global warming and cooling periods, which have lasted until today. During the period of 10,000 to 8500 BC, there was a slight cooling period known as the Younger-Dryas. However, that passed, and between 5000 and 3000 B.C., temperatures increased to a level higher than today. This period is referred to as the Climatic Optimum. It was during this warming period in history that Earth’s first great human civilizations began to flourish, such as ancient African civilizations around the Nile.[1]

Between 3000 and 2000 B.C., a cooling period occurred, resulting in a drop in sea levels, from which islands such as the Bahamas emerged. There was a subsequent warming period between 2000 and 1500 B.C., again followed by a cool period, which led to glacial growth. The Roman Empire (150 B.C. – 300 A.D.) occurred during a cooling period, which went until roughly 900 A.D. During the period of 900 A.D. until 1200 A.D., a warming period occurred known as the Medieval Warming Period, or Little Climatic Optimum, which was warmer than today, allowing settlements to flourish in Greenland and Iceland.

Then a cooling period followed and between 1550 and 1850, temperatures were colder than at any other time since the end of the previous Ice Age, leading to what has been called the Little Ice Age. Since 1850, there has been a general warming period.[2]

CO2 and Temperature

This latest warming period has also coincided with the Industrial Revolution, which saw the greatest output of human induced CO2, leading many, like Al Gore, to compare the rise in CO2 levels with the rise in temperatures, drawing a conclusion that the rise in CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere was the determining factor in the rise in temperatures. However, if one studies statistics and how to read and interpret stats and graphs, one of the primary lessons is that correlation does not imply causation. Simply put, two factors lining up on a graph, does not necessarily imply that there is a cause and effect relationship. One could take a graph of increases in temperatures and increases in the consumption of peanuts, and they may line up. However, common sense will tell us that eating peanuts does not increase global temperatures. Simply because there appears to be a correlation between the two, that does not imply that there is a cause and effect relationship.

When it comes to CO2, however, there is a much more important factor to analyze than simply statistical interpretation. Al Gore popularized the CO2/temperature connection in his movie, An Inconvenient Truth, in which he showed the correlation between the two on a graph. However, he interpreted the graph as evidence of a cause and effect relationship. His information came from an ice core sample related to CO2 emissions in the atmosphere. However, paleoclimatologist and earth sciences professor at USC, Lowell Stott, released findings of a study in September of 2007, which concluded that, “Deep-sea temperatures warmed about 1,300 years before the tropical surface ocean and well before the rise in atmospheric CO2” at the ending of the last ice age, which “suggests the rise in greenhouse gas was likely a result of warming,” not the cause of warming.[3] [Emphasis added]

As well as this, an ice core sample of air bubbles in 2003, “revealed a precise record of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations” and concluded that, “the CO increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 +/- 200 years and preceded the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation.” Simply put, the analysis of the ice core samples, published in Science Magazine, reported that CO2 increases lagged behind temperature increases by roughly 800 years.[4]

In statistics, this is what is called a “lurking variable,” meaning a hidden variable that can have an outcome on the results of a statistic without having been taken into consideration in the statistic’s interpretation. For example, Al Gore’s graph showed a correlation between CO2 increases and temperature increases. The interpretation he gave was that the correlation implied causation; that because they lined up, there was an established relationship, and that relationship was defined as CO2 increases driving temperature. However, the lurking variable was that he did not take into consideration whether CO2 followed temperature increases, as the ice core samples have shown, but he rather chose to conclude that because they line up on a graph, CO2 is therefore the driver. This is bad science and statistical analysis at best, or intentional political deception at worst.

A Lesson in Weather and Carbon

I want to briefly cover what factors affect our weather on Earth and what greenhouse gases are so that we can better understand the science of climate change. Weather takes place in the atmosphere, which is the layer of air directly surrounding the Earth. Air is simply a mix of gases, the most plentiful of which is nitrogen, making up 78% of the air we breathe. Oxygen is 21% of the air we breathe, and the other 1% is a variety of different gases.

Weather tends to occur in the lowest level of the atmosphere, the troposphere. Air temperature, air pressure and humidity are the three factors that determine weather in the troposphere. The most important factors in determining temperature in the atmosphere are radiation arriving from the Sun and flowing from the Earth.

The Sun sends energy into space in a variety of ways. There is visible light, infrared heat rays and ultraviolet rays. Roughly 30% of solar radiation coming into the Earth’s atmosphere is reflected back out to space by clouds, while the remaining 70% is absorbed into the atmosphere, increasing the temperature. This is what is known as the greenhouse effect. Air temperature changes from day to night and season to season, as the amount of radiation from the Sun changes, largely determined by our planet’s tilt towards the Sun. The equator is the exception to the changing temperature with seasons, because it generally receives equal radiation from the Sun year-round.

Air pressure, the second determining factor in weather, is “the weight per unit of area of a column of air that reaches to the top of the atmosphere,” with pressure decreasing the higher you get, because there is less air above you. Humidity, the third main factor in determining weather, is a measure of the amount of water vapor in the air. The amount of water vapor that air can hold increases with temperature increases and decreases as temperatures decrease. When relative humidity is at 100%, water vapor condenses and forms droplets, changing from a gas to a liquid.[5]

We often hear of “greenhouse gases” as being bad things. Yet, water vapor is the largest greenhouse gas of all. Carbon dioxide follows, with methane, nitrous oxide, ozone and many smaller gases. Water vapor is by far the largest greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, making up a much greater percentage than the gases that follow it.

CO2, or Carbon Dioxide, is produced by all plants, animals, fungi and microorganisms, and it is then absorbed by plants. As people breathe in oxygen, we then breathe out carbon dioxide, plants take it in through photosynthesis, and thusly emit oxygen for us to breathe in.

Carbon dioxide cannot be so simply classified as a toxin. In fact, it is a life accelerant. Recent research has shown that “shifts in rainfall patterns, cloud cover, and warming temperatures triggered a 6 percent increase in the amount of carbon stored in trees, grass, shrubs, and flowers,” in particular in the Amazon rain forests, which saw the greatest growth rates in the world.[6] The study, conducted from 1982 to 1999, showed that “global climate change has eased climatic constraints on plant life around the globe, allowing vegetation to increase 6 percent.”[7] Vegetation was taking in increasing amounts of CO2 in North America between 1982 and 1998, and “increased atmospheric CO2 and climate change are the primary causes of the recent U.S. vegetation increases.”[8]

A NASA study revealed in 2001, that, “when the atmosphere gets hazy, like it did after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in June 1991, plants photosynthesize more efficiently, thereby absorbing more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere,” as volcanoes emit massive amounts of CO2 during an eruption.[9] Another study conducted in 2006 revealed that, “Diversity increases as the planet warms and decreases as it cools,” yet, deforestation can reverse this effect, simulating the effects of a global cooling trend.[10]

In 2007, a new study revealed that as icebergs break off from Antarctica, “some as large as a dozen miles across – are having a major impact on the ecology of the ocean around them, serving as ‘hotspots’ for ocean life, with thriving communities of seabirds above and a web of phytoplankton, krill, and fish below,” and that the icebergs “can serve as a route for carbon dioxide drawdown” as it sinks into the sea.[11]

In 2002, it was reported that, “The southern Saharan desert is in retreat, making farming viable again in what were some of the most arid parts of Africa,” and that, “dunes are retreating right across the Sahel region on the southern edge of the Sahara desert. Vegetation is ousting sand across a swathe of land stretching from Mauritania on the shores of the Atlantic to Eritrea 6000 kilometres away on the Red Sea coast,” which was largely attributed to increases in rainfall.[12] A scientific study conducted in the Netherlands predicted that global warming “could significantly increase rainfall in Saharan Africa within a few decades, potentially ending the severe droughts that have devastated the region,” which could in effect cause a “greening of the Sahara.”[13]

What Causes Climate Change?

If CO2 increases lag behind temperature increases, it does not make sense that CO2 can be the cause of temperature increases. It would be the equivalent of saying that growing older is caused by the graying of hair; there appears to be a cause and effect relationship, it is just of vital importance to understand which is the cause and which is the effect. So, from here we must examine what some major causes of climatic change can be.

The most important factor in climatic changes is what is called solar variations. This refers to radiation emitted from the Sun and its variations, in particular, the sunspot cycle. Sunspot cycles are the irregular rises and drops in the number of sunspots, which are regions on the Sun’s surface, which have lower temperatures than its surrounding area and strong magnetic fields. The cycles tend to last 11 years.

An important thing to note is that Earth is not the only planet that experiences climate change, as in 2002, it was reported that Pluto was “undergoing global warming in its thin atmosphere,” likely due to it’s orbit, which, “significantly changes the planet's distance from the Sun during its long ‘year,’ which lasts 248 Earth years.”[14] In 2006, it was reported that a new storm on Jupiter could indicate that the planet is “in the midst of a global change that can modify temperatures by as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit.”[15] As far back as 1998, it was reported that Neptune’s largest moon, Triton, “has been undergoing a period of global warming,” since 1989.[16] This could have much to do with the fact that, as reported in 1997, the “Sun is getting hotter,” leading some scientists to say that Earth’s global warming “is part of a natural cycle for the planet.”[17]

In 2004, the Telegraph reported that, “Global warming has finally been explained: the Earth is getting hotter because the Sun is burning more brightly than at any time during the past 1,000 years, according to new research.” The study, conducted by Swiss and German scientists, “suggests that increasing radiation from the sun is responsible for recent global climate changes.” Interestingly, the Sun “is brighter than it was a few hundred years ago and this brightening started relatively recently - in the last 100 to 150 years,” coinciding with the warming trend experienced since the Industrial Revolution.[18] This is what can be referred to as a “lurking variable” in Al Gore’s analysis of his graphs of carbon and temperature increases since the Industrial Revolution. It is a lurking variable because though the temperatures and carbon emissions match up on a graph, it doesn’t take into account other factors that may influence the statistics, such as increasing radiation from the Sun, which also correlates with increasing temperatures.

National Geographic News quoted a scientist in 2007 that, “Simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet's recent climate changes have a natural—and not a human-induced—cause.” Mars’ ice caps had been diminishing for three years in a row, and the scientist, “Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun.” He further stated that, “changes in the sun's heat output can account for almost all the climate changes we see on both planets.”[19] A NASA study in the same year also reported that Mars warmed since the 1970s, “similar to the warming experienced on Earth over approximately the same period,” which, they conclude, “suggests rapid changes in planetary climates could be natural phenomena.”[20] A study in 2007 on climatic changes on Earth and Neptune suggested that, “some planetary climate changes may be due to variations in the solar system environment.”[21]

In 2006, a study was conducted regarding Venus being the “solar system’s most inhospitable planet.” A planetary scientist at Oxford University stated, “It's very disturbing that we do not understand the climate on a planet that is so much like the Earth,” and that, “It is telling us that we really don't understand the Earth. We have ended up with a lot of mysteries.” Venus was “unbelievably hot, dense, and had virtually no oxygen.” Venus has a very pronounced greenhouse effect, as its “thick atmosphere traps solar radiation and heats the world to boiling point.” Scientists say that Venus being closer to the Sun than Earth is a factor, yet, there may be other factors. One brought up was that Venus’ atmosphere is almost entirely made up of CO2, which is effective at trapping heat. CO2 is roughly 95% of Venus’ atmosphere, compared to Earth’s atmosphere, which is 0.038% CO2, so it is extremely understandable that CO2 would have a greater effect upon Venus than Earth. The question as to why Venus has so much CO2 may be because it lost its water, whereas on Earth, “carbon dioxide is absorbed by the oceans, where it forms carbonate minerals and over the millennia is deposited as rock. That process was arrested early on Venus when it lost its oceans.”[22] Perhaps we should put more focus into preserving and protecting our oceans.

Get Your Parka, Here Comes Global… “Cooling”?

There is a little problem with the whole “global warming” consensus, in that recent scientific research has shown that, “A study of sea temperature changes predicts a lull as traditional climate cycles cancel out the heating effect of greenhouse gases from pollution,” and that, “Global warming will be ‘put on hold’ over the next decade because of natural climate variations.”[23] In other words, the natural climate cycles that Earth goes through, and always has gone through, has changed once again, just as a political consensus was reached. This is very significant because if CO2 was the prime cause for recent warming, and CO2 consumption has not gone down, yet, the Earth’s climate has engaged on a cooling trend, this appears to pose a problem for the CO2 hypothesis.

This cooling trend is supported by many recent events. In 2008, “Snow cover over North America and much ofSiberia, Mongolia and China is greater than at any time since 1966,” and China went through its most brutal winter in a century. Also, when we are told that the Artic Sea ice is melting to its “lowest levels on record,” it is important to note that the records date back to 1972, and “that there is anthropological and geological evidence of much greater melts in the past.” As it turns out, the ice itself has not only recovered from melting, but has grown thicker in many places. With the previous melting of the Arctic, we have been told it was caused by human activity and will result in catastrophe. However, climate modelers, predicting the future climate with computer models based upon information they provide, such as CO2 consumption, are highly inaccurate, as, “Climate models until now have not properly accounted for the wind's effects on ocean circulation, so researchers have compensated by over-emphasizing the role of manmade warming on polar ice melt.”[24]

Many places have experienced unusual cold and snowfalls in the last year. Argentina got its first snowfall in Buenos Aires since 1918,[25] Johannesburg, South Africa, experienced snow for the first time in 26 years,[26] Baghdad experienced snow for the “first time in living memory,”[27] and Saudi Arabia went through sub-zero temperatures and snow storms, making it the coldest winter in over 20 years.[28]

Even the BBC reported that temperatures will decrease, “as a result of the cold La Nina current in the Pacific,”[29] which is a natural phenomenon, and has a large effect on increasing cyclonic activity in the Atlantic. It’s interesting how La Niña and El Niño have disappeared from discussion on climate and hurricanes. Today, whenever there is a hurricane or natural disaster, it is instantly blamed on global warming and having been accelerated by human activity. Even Al Gore’s movie poster pictured a smoke stack with a hurricane coming out the top. An MIT climate scientist, who previously wrote about the link between hurricane energy and warming, produced a study in 2008 where he changed his pervious claims, saying that its not a clearly defined connection, saying there is a “lot of uncertainty,” and he was quoted as stating, “It’s a really bad thing for a scientist to have an immovable, intractable position.”[30]

In March of 2008, NPR reported that after a survey of the ocean by 3,000 scientific robots, information was retrieved that showed that, “the oceans have not warmed up at all over the past four or five years. That could mean global warming has taken a breather.” The article quotes a NASA scientist as saying that, “the oceans are what really matter when it comes to global warming.”[31]

In July of 2008, a major peer-reviewed journal of the American Physical Society, Physics and Society, concluded that the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report “overstated” the effects of CO2 on temperature in their climate models by between 500 and 2000%. The paper concluded that there is no “climate crisis.” The paper further reported that CO2 will add “little more than 1°F (O.6°C) to global mean surface temperature by 2100;” that the IPCC report took their predictive information from four published papers, not 2,500, as was claimed; that “global warming” stopped ten years ago; the IPCC overstated the “effect of ice-melt by 1000%”; that 50 years ago, it was proved that “predicting climate more than two weeks ahead is impossible”; and that an important factor in explaining the previous warming was that, “In the past 70 years the Sun was more active than at almost any other time in the last 11,400 years.”[32]

What About the Consensus?

We are often told, (especially by Al Gore), that on the issue of the effects of human activity on climate change, there is a “scientific consensus” on humans being the primary cause. If the above information does not provide some proof as to a lack of consensus on the subject, perhaps the fact that for the UN-organized 1992 Rio Earth Summit, which concluded that, “global warming and other environmental insults were threatening the planet with catastrophe,” was countered with a petition of scientists decrying, “the unsupported assumption that catastrophic global warming follows from the burning of fossil fuels and requires immediate action.” The number of signatories to the petition eventually reached 4,000 scientists, including 72 Nobel Prize winners. In 2000, to counter the Kyoto Protocol, a petition was made up of “1,500 clergy, theologians, religious leaders, scientists, academics and policy experts concerned about the harm that Kyoto could inflict on the world’s poor.”[33]

A current petition makes the statement that, “There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.” This petition has been signed by over 31,000 scientists.[34]

The former editor of New Scientist magazine, Nigel Calder, wrote that, “When politicians and journalists declare that the science of global warming is settled, they show a regrettable ignorance about how science works.” He explained how roughly 20 years ago, “climate research became politicized in favour of one particular hypothesis,” and that the media, “often imagine that anyone who doubts the hypothesis of man-made global warming must be in the pay of the oil companies. As a result, some key discoveries in climate research go almost unreported.” He also explained the results of a scientific study conducted in 2001 in Denmark, which found that, “cloudiness varies according to how many atomic particles are coming in from exploded stars. More cosmic rays, more clouds. The sun’s magnetic field bats away many of the cosmic rays, and its intensification during the 20th century meant fewer cosmic rays, fewer clouds, and a warmer world. On the other hand the Little Ice Age was chilly because the lazy sun let in more cosmic rays, leaving the world cloudier and gloomier.”[35] So not only is the Sun a determining factor, but so are cosmic rays.

Conclusion

I won’t state exactly what is causing climate change on our planet, as the reality is that there are many answers to that question; the Sun, cosmic rays, ocean currents and other natural phenomena, etc. However, it is safe to say that the wealth of science points to a natural change in our climate, and the entire history of the world and of all humanity supports this hypothesis. Throughout history, as in the earliest African civilizations, it was the ability of different peoples to change and adapt to climate change, which determined their survival as a civilization.

Today, we are trying to fight it. This is a dangerous road to walk, and history will not look kindly upon our scientific ignorance and politically fear-driven society. How will we be viewed in the future? How have we viewed the people of the past who thought the Earth was flat, or the Sun revolved around Earth?

Trying to fight and stop a natural phenomenon is possibly one of the most ignorant and dangerous things humanity has ever engaged in. How would history view a civilization that tried to reverse the spinning of the Earth, or the blowing of wind? It is a recipe for the fall of a civilization.

Much of the people in the world have been riled up with predictions of a catastrophic end to mankind and the world unless we don’t do something about so-called “man-made” climate change. Ironically enough, our refusal to adapt to a changing world, and instead a determination to fight it with our efforts to “go green” and “carbon neutral” may, in fact, cause the catastrophic end of our civilization. And sadly, in this instance, it would undeniably be a man-made disaster.

Notes

[1] Pidwirny, M. (2006). "Earth's Climatic History". Fundamentals of Physical Geography, 2nd Edition.http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7x.html

[2] Ibid.

[3] Terah U. DeJong, Clues to End of the Last Ice Age. USC News: September 27, 2007: http://www.usc.edu/uscnews/stories/14288.html

[4] Nicolas Caillon, et al., Timing of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature Changes Across Termination III. Science Magazine: Vol 299, March 14, 2003: Page 1728:
http://icebubbles.ucsd.edu/Publications/CaillonTermIII.pdf

[5] Moran, Joseph M., Weather. World Book Online Reference Center. 2005. World Book, Inc. http://www.worldbookonline.com/wb/Article?id=ar596160

[6] Peter N. Spotts, World's vegetation is cleaning more carbon from skies. Christian Science Monitor: June 6, 2003:http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/0606/p02s02-usgn.html

[7] John Roach, Climate Change Upped Earth's Vegetation, Study Finds. National Geographic: June 5, 2003:http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/06/0605_030605_climatechange.html

[8] Jeffrey Hicke, New satellite study shows vegetation increases in North America. Bio-Medicine: http://news.bio-medicine.org/biology-news-2/New-satellite-study-shows-vegetation-increases-in-North-America-9791-1/

[9] Goddard Space Flight Center, Large Volcanic Eruptions Help Plants Absorb More Carbon Dioxide From the Atmosphere. NASA: December 10, 2001:http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20011210co2absorb.html

[10] Rhett A. Butler, Does tropical biodiversity increase during global warming? Mongabay: March 30, 2006: http://news.mongabay.com/2006/0330-stri.html

[11] K.L. Smith, Jr., et al. (2007). "Free-Drifting Icebergs: Hotspots of Chemical and Biological Enrichment in the Weddell Sea," Science 22 June 2007

[12] Fred Pearce, Africa's deserts are in "spectacular" retreat. New Scientist: September 18, 2002: http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn2811

[13] David Adam, Global warming could end Sahara droughts, says study. The Guardian: September 16, 2005: http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2005/sep/16/highereducation.climatechange

[14] Robert Roy Britt, Global Warming on Pluto Puzzles Scientists. Space.com: October 9, 2002: http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/pluto_warming_021009.html

[15] Sara Goudarzi, New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change. Space.com: May 4, 2006: http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/060504_red_jr.html

[16] News, Global Warming Detected on Triton. Science A Go-Go: June 28, 1998:http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/19980526052143data_trunc_sys.shtml

[17] NYT, Sun Is Getting Hotter, Satellite Data Indicate. The New York Times: September 30, 1997: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0DE5D9133AF933A0575AC0A961958260

[18] Michael Leidig and Roya Nikkhah, The truth about global warming - it's the Sun that's to blame. The Telegraph: July 18, 2004:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/connected/main.jhtml?xml=/connected/2004/07/19/ecnsun18.xml

[19] Kate Ravilious, Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says. National Geographic News: February 28, 2007:http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html

[20] Sunday Times, Climate Change Hits Mars. Times Online: April 27, 2007: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1720024.ece

[21] H.B. Hammel and G.W. Lockwood, Suggestive correlations between the brightness of Neptune, solar variability, and Earth's temperature. Geophysical Research Letters: Vol. 34, April 19, 2007: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028764.shtml

[22] Robin McKie, Venus: the hot spot. The Guardian: April 9, 2006: http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2006/apr/09/starsgalaxiesandplanets.spaceexploration

[23] MaONT>

[25] AP, Buenos Aires gets first snow since 1918. USA Today: July 9, 2007: http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2007-07-09-argentina-snow_N.htm

[26] Mike Nizza, In Johannesburg, First Snowfall Since ’81. The New York Times: June 27, 2007: http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/06/27/in-johannesburg-first-snowfall-since-81/

[27] BBC, Baghdad Wakes Up to Rare Snowfall. BBC News: January 11, 2008: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7183881.stm

[28] RIA, Saudi Arabia covered with snow in coldest winter for 20 years. RIA Novosti: January 11, 2008: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080111/96210251.html

[29] Roger Harrabin, Global temperatures 'to decrease'. BBC News: April 4, 2008: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7329799.stm

[30] Andrew C. Revkin, Hurricane Expert Reassesses Link to Warming. New York Times Blog: April 12, 2008:http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/12/hurricane-expert-reassesses-climate-link/

[31] Richard Harris, The Mystery of Global Warming's Missing Heat. NPR: March 19, 2008: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025

[32] Robert Ferguson, Proved: There is No Climate Crisis. Science and Public Policy Institute: July 15, 2008:http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/press/proved_no_climate_crisis.html

[33] Lawrence Soloman, 32,000 Deniers. National Post: May 16, 2008: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2008/05/17/32-000-deniers.aspx

[34] OISM, Global Warming Petition. Petition Project: http://www.oism.org/pproject/

[35] Nigel Calder, An experiment that hints we are wrong on climate change. Times Online: February 11, 2007: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk//article1363818.ece?Submitted=true



Andrew Gavin Marshall is a frequent contributor to Global Research. Global Research Articles by Andrew Gavin Marshall

sexta-feira, 1 de outubro de 2010

segunda-feira, 27 de setembro de 2010

The former guerrilla set to be the world's most powerful woman



The world's most powerful woman will start coming into her own next weekend. Stocky and forceful at 63, this former leader of the resistance to a Western-backed military dictatorship (which tortured her) is preparing to take her place as President of Brazil.

A mulher mais poderosa do mundo começará a andar com as próprias pernas no próximo fim de semana. Forte e vigorosa aos 63 anos, essa ex-líder da resistência a uma ditadura militar (que a torturou) se prepara para conquistar o seu lugar como Presidente do Brasil.


As head of state, president Dilma Rousseff would outrank Angela Merkel, Germany's Chancellor, and Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State: her enormous country of 200 million people is revelling in its new oil wealth. Brazil's growth rate, rivalling China's, is one that Europe and Washington can only envy.

Como chefe de estado, a Presidente Dilma Rousseff irá se tornar mais poderosa que a Chanceler da Alemanha, Angela Merkel e que a Secretária de Estado dos EUA, Hillary Clinton: seu país enorme de 200 milhões de pessoas está comemorando seu novo tesouro petrolífero. A taxa de crescimento do Brasil, rivalizando com a China, é algo que a Europa e Washington podem apenas invejar.

Her widely predicted victory in next Sunday's presidential poll will be greeted with delight by millions. It marks the final demolition of the "national security state", an arrangement that conservative governments in the US and Europe once regarded as their best artifice for limiting democracy and reform. It maintained a rotten status quo that kept a vast majority in poverty in Latin America while favouring their rich friends.

Sua ampla vitória prevista para a próxima eleição presidencial será comemorada com encantamento por milhões. Marca a demolição final do “estado de segurança nacional”, um arranjo que os governos conservadores, nos EUA e na Europa uma vez tomaram como seu melhor artifício para limitar a democracia e a reforma. Ele sustenta um status quo corrompido que mantém a imensa maioria na pobreza na América Latina, enquanto favorece seus amigos ricos.


Ms Rousseff, the daughter of a Bulgarian immigrant to Brazil and his schoolteacher wife, has benefited from being, in effect, the prime minister of the immensely popular President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the former union leader. But, with a record of determination and success (which includes appearing to have conquered lymphatic cancer), this wife, mother and grandmother will be her own woman. The polls say she has built up an unassailable lead – of more than 50 per cent compared with less than 30 per cent – over her nearest rival, an uninspiring man of the centre called Jose Serra. Few doubt that she will be installed in the Alvorada presidential palace in Brasilia in January.

A senhora Rousseff, a filha de um imigrante búlgaro no Brasil e de sua esposa, professora primária, foi beneficiada por ser, de fato, a primeira ministra do imensamente popular Presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, ex-líder sindical. Mas com uma história de determinação e sucesso (que inclui ter se curado de um câncer linfático), essa companheira, mãe e avó será mulher por si mesma. As pesquisas mostram que ela construiu uma posição inexpugnável – de mais de 50%, comparado com menos de 30% – sobre o seu rival mais próximo, homem enfadonho de centro, chamado José Serra. Há pouca dúvida de que ela estará instalada no Palácio Presidencial Alvorada de Brasília, em janeiro.

Like President Jose Mujica of Uruguay, Brazil's neighbour, Ms Rousseff is unashamed of a past as an urban guerrilla which included battling the generals and spending time in jail as a political prisoner. As a little girl growing up in the provincial city of Belo Horizonte, she says she dreamed successively of becoming a ballerina, a firefighter and a trapeze artist. The nuns at her school took her class to the city's poor area to show them the vast gaps between the middle-class minority and the vast majority of the poor. She remembers that when a young beggar with sad eyes came to her family's door she tore a currency note in half to share with him, not knowing that half a banknote had no value.

Assim como o Presidente Jose Mujica do Uruguai, vizinho do Brasil, a senhora Rousseff não se constrange com um passado numa guerrilha urbana, que incluiu o combate a generais e um tempo na cadeia como prisioneira política. Quando menina, na provinciana cidade de Belo Horizonte, ela diz que sonhava respectivamente em se tornar bailarina, bombeira e uma artista de trapézio. As freiras de sua escola levavam suas turmas para as áreas pobres para mostrá-las a grande desigualdade entre a minoria de classe média e a vasta maioria de pobres. Ela lembra que quando um menino pobre de olhos tristes chegou à porta da casa de sua família ela rasgou uma nota de dinheiro pela metade e dividiu com ele, sem saber que metade de uma nota não tinha valor.

Her father, Pedro, died when she was 14, but by then he had introduced her to the novels of Zola and Dostoevski. After that, she and her siblings had to work hard with their mother to make ends meet. By 16 she was in POLOP (Workers' Politics), a group outside the traditional Brazilian Communist Party that sought to bring socialism to those who knew little about it.

Seu pai, Pedro, morreu quando ela tinha 14 anos, mas a essas alturas ele já tinha apresentado a Dilma os romances de Zola e Dostoiévski. Depois disso, ela e seus irmãos tiveram de batalhar duro com sua mãe para alcançar seus objetivos. Aos 16 anos ela estava na POLOP (Política Operária), um grupo organizado por fora do tradicional Partido Comunista Brasileiro que buscava trazer o socialismo para quem pouco sabia a seu respeito.

The generals seized power in 1964 and decreed a reign of terror to defend what they called "national security". She joined secretive radical groups that saw nothing wrong with taking up arms against an illegitimate military regime. Besides cosseting the rich and crushing trade unions and the underclass, the generals censored the press, forbidding editors from leaving gaps in newspapers to show where news had been suppressed.

Os generais tomaram o poder em 1964 e instauraram um reino de terror para defender o que chamaram “segurança nacional”. Ela se juntou aos grupos radicais secretos que não viam nada de errado em pegar em armas para combater um regime militar ilegítimo. Além de agradarem aos ricos e esmagar sindicatos e classes baixas, os generais censuraram a imprensa, proibindo editores de deixarem espaços vazios nos jornais para mostrar onde as notícias tinham sido suprimidas.

Ms Rousseff ended up in the clandestine VAR-Palmares (Palmares Armed Revolutionary Vanguard). In the 1960s and 1970s, members of such organisations seized foreign diplomats for ransom: a US ambassador was swapped for a dozen political prisoners; a German ambassador was exchanged for 40 militants; a Swiss envoy swapped for 70. They also shot foreign torture experts sent to train the generals' death squads. Though she says she never used weapons, she was eventually rounded up and tortured by the secret police in Brazil's equivalent to Abu Ghraib, the Tiradentes prison in Sao Paulo. She was given a 25-month sentence for "subversion" and freed after three years. Today she openly confesses to having "wanted to change the world".

A senhora Rousseff terminou na clandestina VAR-Palmares (Vanguarda Armada Revolucionária Palmares). Nos anos 60 e 70, os membros dessas organizações sequestravam diplomatas estrangeiros para resgatar prisioneiros: um embaixador dos EUA foi trocado por uma dúzia de prisioneiros políticos; um embaixador alemão foi trocado por 40 militantes; um representante suíço, trocado por 70. Eles também balearam torturadores especialistas estrangeiros enviados para treinar os esquadrões da morte dos generais. Embora diga que nunca usou armas, ela chegou a ser capturada e torturada pela polícia secreta na equivalente brasileira de Abu Ghraib, o presídio Tiradentes, em São Paulo. Ela recebeu uma sentença de 25 meses por “subversão” e foi libertada depois de três anos. Hoje ela confessa abertamente ter “querido mudar o mundo”.

In 1973 she moved to the prosperous southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, where her second husband, Carlos Araujo, a lawyer, was finishing a four-year term as a political prisoner (her first marriage with a young left-winger, Claudio Galeno, had not survived the strains of two people being on the run in different cities). She went back to university, started working for the state government in 1975, and had a daughter, Paula.

Em 1973 ela se mudou para o próspero estado do sul, o Rio Grande do Sul, onde seu segundo marido, um advogado, estava terminando de cumprir sua pena como prisioneiro político (seu primeiro casamento com um jovem militante de esquerda, Claudio Galeno, não sobreviveu às tensões de duas pessoas na correria, em cidades diferentes). Ela voltou à universidade, começou a trabalhar para o governo do estado em 1975, e teve uma filha, Paula.

In 1986, she was named finance chief of Porto Alegre, the state capital, where her political talents began to blossom. Yet the 1990s were bitter-sweet years for her. In 1993 she was named secretary of energy for the state, and pulled off the coup of vastly increasing power production, ensuring the state was spared the power cuts that plagued the rest of the country.

Em 1986 ela foi nomeada secretária de finanças da cidade de Porto Alegre, a capital do estado, onde seus talentos políticos começaram a florescer. Os anos 1990 foram anos de bons ventos para ela. Em 1993 ela foi nomeada secretária de minas e energia do estado, e impulsionou amplamente o aumento da produção de energia, assegurando que o estado enfrentasse o racionamento de energia de que o resto do país padeceu.

She had 1,000km of new electric power lines, new dams and thermal power stations built while persuading citizens to switch off the lights whenever they could. Her political star started shining brightly. But in 1994, after 24 years together, she separated from Mr Araujo, though apparently on good terms. At the same time she was torn between academic life and politics, but her attempt to gain a doctorate in social sciences failed in 1998.

Ela tinha mil quilômetros de novas linhas de energia elétrica, novas barragens e estações de energia térmica construídas, enquanto persuadia os cidadãos a desligarem as luzes sempre que pudessem. Sua estrela política começou a brilhar muito. Mas em 1994, depois de 24 anos juntos, ela se separou do Senhor Araújo, aparentemente de maneira amigável. Ao mesmo tempo ela se voltou à vida acadêmica e política, mas sua tentativa de concluir o doutorado em ciências sociais fracassou em 1998.

In 2000 she threw her lot in with Lula and his Partido dos Trabalhadores, or Workers' Party which set its sights successfully on combining economic growth with an attack on poverty. The two immediately hit it off and she became his first energy minister in 2003. Two years later he made her his chief of staff and has since backed her as his successor. She has been by his side as Brazil has found vast new offshore oil deposits, aiding a leader whom many in the European and US media were denouncing a decade ago as a extreme left-wing wrecker to pull 24 million Brazilians out of poverty. Lula stood by her in April last year as she was diagnosed with lymphatic cancer, a condition that was declared under control a year ago. Recent reports of financial irregularities among her staff do not seem to have damaged her popularity.

Em 2000 ela adquiriu seu espaço com Lula e seu Partido dos Trabalhadores, que se volta sucessivamente para a combinação de crescimento econômico com o ataque à pobreza. Os dois se deram bem imediatamente e ela se tornou sua primeira ministra de energia em 2003. Dois anos depois ele a tornou chefe da casa civil e desde então passou a apostar nela para a sua sucessão. Ela estava ao lado de Lula quando o Brasil encontrou uma vasta camada de petróleo, ajudando o líder que muitos da mídia européia e estadunidense denunciaram uma década atrás como um militante da extrema esquerda a retirar 24 milhões de brasileiros da pobreza. Lula estava com ela em abril do ano passado quando foi diagnosticada com um câncer linfático, uma condição declarada sob controle há um ano. Denúncias recentes de irregularidades financeiras entre membros de sua equipe quando estava no governo não parecem ter abalado a popularidade da candidata.

Ms Rousseff is likely to invite President Mujica of Uruguay to her inauguration in the New Year. President Evo Morales of Bolivia, President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and President Fernando Lugo of Paraguay – other successful South American leaders who have, like her, weathered merciless campaigns of denigration in the Western media – are also sure to be there. It will be a celebration of political decency – and feminism.

A Senhora Rousseff provavelmente convidará o Presidente Mujica do Uruguai para sua posse no Ano Novo. O Presidente Evo Morales, da Bolívia, o Presidente Hugo Chávez, da Venezuela e o Presidente Lugo, do Paraguai – outros líderes bem sucedidos da América do Sul que, como ela, têm sofrido ataques de campanhas impiedosas de degradação na mídia ocidental – certamente também estarão lá. Será uma celebração da decência política – e do feminismo.

Tradução: Katarina Peixoto

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/the-former-guerrilla-set-to-be-the-worlds-most-powerful-woman-2089916.html

sexta-feira, 10 de setembro de 2010

Shooting an Elephant


Shooting an Elephant  

George Orwell



In Moulmein, in Lower Burma, I was hated by large numbers of people — the only time in my life that I have been important enough for this to happen to me. I was sub-divisional police officer of the town, and in an aimless, petty kind of way anti-European feeling was very bitter. No one had the guts to raise a riot, but if a European woman went through the bazaars alone somebody would probably spit betel juice over her dress. As a police officer I was an obvious target and was baited whenever it seemed safe to do so. When a nimble Burman tripped me up on the football field and the referee (another Burman) looked the other way, the crowd yelled with hideous laughter. This happened more than once. In the end the sneering yellow faces of young men that met me everywhere, the insults hooted after me when I was at a safe distance, got badly on my nerves. The young Buddhist priests were the worst of all. There were several thousands of them in the town and none of them seemed to have anything to do except stand on street corners and jeer at Europeans.

full short story here

domingo, 29 de agosto de 2010

sábado, 28 de agosto de 2010

EUA somem na escuridão - America goes dark


America goes dark
EUA somem na escuridão
Por Paul Krugman
8 de agosto de 2010




The lights are going out all over America — literally. Colorado Springs has made headlines with its desperate attempt to save money by turning off a third of its streetlights, but similar things are either happening or being contemplated across the nation, from Philadelphia to Fresno.

As luzes se apagam em todo Estados Unidos. A cidade de Colorado Springs estampou nas manchetes dos jornais locais sua intenção desesperada de economizar dinheiro apagando um terço de seus semáforos, mas estão acontecendo coisas parecidas em todo o país, desde a Filadélfia até Fresno.

Meanwhile, a country that once amazed the world with its visionary investments in transportation, from the Erie Canal to the Interstate Highway System, is now in the process of unpaving itself: in a number of states, local governments are breaking up roads they can no longer afford to maintain, and returning them to gravel.

Contudo, um país que assombrou o mundo com seus visionários investimentos nos transportes, desde o canal de Erie até o sistema de autopistas interestatais, agora se encontra em um processo de despavimentação: em vários estados, os governos locais estão destruindo estradas que não já não podem mais manter e reduzindo-as a cascalho.

And a nation that once prized education — that was among the first to provide basic schooling to all its children — is now cutting back. Teachers are being laid off; programs are being canceled; in Hawaii, the school year itself is being drastically shortened. And all signs point to even more cuts ahead.

E uma nação que outrora valorizava a educação, que foi uma das primeiras a oferecer escolarização básica a todas as suas crianças, agora está fazendo cortes. Os professores estão sendo despedidos e os programas cancelados. No Havaí, até o curso escolar está acabando de maneira drástica. E tudo indica que no futuro mais ajustes serão feitos.

We’re told that we have no choice, that basic government functions — essential services that have been provided for generations — are no longer affordable. And it’s true that state and local governments, hit hard by the recession, are cash-strapped. But they wouldn’t be quite as cash-strapped if their politicians were willing to consider at least some tax increases.

Dizem-nos que não temos eleição, que as funções governamentais básicas – serviços essenciais proporcionados durante gerações – já não são viáveis. E é certo que os governos estaduais e locais, duramente açoitados pela recessão, estão sem recursos. Mas não estariam assim se seus políticos estivessem dispostos a considerar ao menos alguns aumentos de impostos.

And the federal government, which can sell inflation-protected long-term bonds at an interest rate of only 1.04 percent, isn’t cash-strapped at all. It could and should be offering aid to local governments, to protect the future of our infrastructure and our children.

E no governo federal, que pode vender bônus a longo prazo protegidos contra a inflação, com uma taxa de juros básica de 1,04%, não gasta o dinheiro. Poderia e deveria oferecer ajuda aos governos locais e proteger o futuro de nossas infraestruturas e de nossos filhos.

But Washington is providing only a trickle of help, and even that grudgingly. We must place priority on reducing the deficit, say Republicans and “centrist” Democrats. And then, virtually in the next breath, they declare that we must preserve tax cuts for the very affluent, at a budget cost of $700 billion over the next decade.
Mas Washington está prestando ajuda aos poucos, e até isso o faz a contragosto. Devemos dar prioridade à redução do déficit, dizem os republicanos e os democratas centristas. E logo, quase em seguida, afirmam que devemos manter as subvenções fiscais para os ricos, o que terá um custo previsto de 7 bilhões de dólares durante a próxima década.

In effect, a large part of our political class is showing its priorities: given the choice between asking the richest 2 percent or so of Americans to go back to paying the tax rates they paid during the Clinton-era boom, or allowing the nation’s foundations to crumble — literally in the case of roads, figuratively in the case of education — they’re choosing the latter.

Na prática, boa parte de nossa classe política está demonstrando quais são suas prioridades: quando podem escolher entre pedir que 2% dos estadounidenses mais abastados voltem a pagar os mesmos impostos que durante a expansão da Era Clinton ou permitir que derrubem a estrutura da nação – de maneira literal no caso das estradas e figurada no caso da educação -, preferem este último.

It’s a disastrous choice in both the short run and the long run. In the short run, those state and local cutbacks are a major drag on the economy, perpetuating devastatingly high unemployment.

É uma decisão desastrosa tanto a curto como a longo prazo. A curto prazo, esses cortes estatais e locais implicam um pesado empecilho para a economia e perpetuam o desemprego, que é devastadoramente elevado.

It’s crucial to keep state and local government in mind when you hear people ranting about runaway government spending under President Obama. Yes, the federal government is spending more, although not as much as you might think. But state and local governments are cutting back. And if you add them together, it turns out that the only big spending increases have been in safety-net programs like unemployment insurance, which have soared in cost thanks to the severity of the slump.
É crucial que os governos estaduais e locais tenham em mente as duras críticas da população a respeito do elevado o gasto público durante o governo Obama. Sim, o governo federal estadounidense gasta, ainda que não tanto como pensam. Mas os governos estatais e locais estão fazendo cortes. E, se somamos, o resultado é que os únicos incrementos relevantes no gasto público foram com programas de proteção social, como o seguro-desemprego, cujos custos dispararam por culpa da gravidade da crise econômica.

That is, for all the talk of a failed stimulus, if you look at government spending as a whole you see hardly any stimulus at all. And with federal spending now trailing off, while big state and local cutbacks continue, we’re going into reverse.

Isso quer dizer que, apesar do que dizem sobre o fracasso do estímulo, se observamos o gasto governamental em seu conjunto, não vemos estímulo algum. E agora que o gasto federal está reduzido, ao passo que os grandes recortes de gastos estatais e locais continuam, vamos para trás.

But isn’t keeping taxes for the affluent low also a form of stimulus? Not so you’d notice. When we save a schoolteacher’s job, that unambiguously aids employment; when we give millionaires more money instead, there’s a good chance that most of that money will just sit idle.

Mas não é também uma forma de estímulo manter os impostos baixos para os ricos? Não se percebe isso. Quando salvamos o posto de trabalho de um professor, isso ajuda o nível de emprego sem dúvida; quando, ao contrário, damos mais dinheiro aos multimilionários, é muito possível que a maior parte desse dinheiro fique imobilizada.

And what about the economy’s future? Everything we know about economic growth says that a well-educated population and high-quality infrastructure are crucial. Emerging nations are making huge efforts to upgrade their roads, their ports and their schools. Yet in America we’re going backward.

E sobre o futuro da economia? Tudo o que sabemos sobre o crescimento econômico diz que uma população culta e uma infraestrutura de alta qualidade são cruciais para o crescimento. As nações emergentes estão realizando enormes esforços para melhorar suas estradas, portos e colégios. Contudo, nos EUA estamos recuando.

How did we get to this point? It’s the logical consequence of three decades of antigovernment rhetoric, rhetoric that has convinced many voters that a dollar collected in taxes is always a dollar wasted, that the public sector can’t do anything right.

Como chegamos a esse ponto? É a consequência lógica de três décadas de retórica antigovernamental, uma retórica que convenceu numerosos eleitores de que um dólar arrecadado por impostos é sempre um dólar mal gasto, que o setor público é incapaz de fazer algo bem feito.

The antigovernment campaign has always been phrased in terms of opposition to waste and fraud — to checks sent to welfare queens driving Cadillacs, to vast armies of bureaucrats uselessly pushing paper around. But those were myths, of course; there was never remotely as much waste and fraud as the right claimed. And now that the campaign has reached fruition, we’re seeing what was actually in the firing line: services that everyone except the very rich need, services that government must provide or nobody will, like lighted streets, drivable roads and decent schooling for the public as a whole.

A campanha contra o governo sempre planteou como uma oposição à fraude, aos cheques enviados a rainhas da segurança social que conduzem luxuosos cadillacs e a grandes exércitos de burocratas que, de um lado a outro, movem documentos inutilmente. Mas isso são mitos; nunca houve tanta fraude como assegurava a direita. E agora que a campanha começa a dar frutos, vemos o que realmente havia na linha do fogo: serviços que todos, exceto os muito ricos, necessitam, serviços que devem ser proporcionados pelo governo, como reformas nas ruas, estradas transitáveis e escolarização decente para todos os cidadãos.

So the end result of the long campaign against government is that we’ve taken a disastrously wrong turn. America is now on the unlit, unpaved road to nowhere.

Portanto, o resultado final da prolongada campanha contra o governo é que demos um passo desastrosamente equivocado. Agora, os EUA transitam por uma estrada escura, sem luz, e sem asfalto, que não leva a lugar nenhum.

Tradução: André Rossi. Artigo traduzido de http://www.rebelion.org/noticia.php?id=111874. Fonte : http://www.attac.es/ee-uu-se-sume-en-la-oscuridad/.

quinta-feira, 26 de agosto de 2010

Brazil’s election: all over bar the voting?


Leia sobre o texto em Português

Link original

August 24, 2010 8:35pmby Jonathan Wheatley

There are 40 days to go until Brazil’s general elections on October 3 and as everybody knows, that is a very long time in politics. But at present it is hard to imagine any other outcome than a resounding victory in the presidential race for Dilma Rousseff, chosen successor to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the left-wing PT, in power for the last eight years as the most popular president in Brazilian history.

An opinion poll published today gives Dilma an 18 point lead over her nearest rival, José Serra of the centrist opposition PSDB. Serra led most opinion polls until last month, largely, it now seems, because he was simply better known. His hope was to maintain enough momentum to force Dilma into a two-way run-off on October 31. But the latest polls give Dilma more votes than all other candidates combined – enough to secure outright victory in the first round.

Dilma’s campaign has been quick to exploit her commanding lead.

Serra’s campaign is in disarray. He seems to be running on a single issue: his achievements as health minister a decade ago and his investments in health services as mayor of São Paulo city and governor of São Paulo state. He has taken up valuable column inches accusing Evo Morales of Bolivia of running cocaine into Brazil, accusing the PT of links to the FARC in Colombia and accusing the government of censoring Brazil’s press – surely one of the most uncensored in the world.

None of this has anything to do with his programme for government. Indeed, it is hard to see what his programme is. It should be to continue the overhaul of the Brazilian state begun in the 1990s by his party colleague Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Instead, Serra has allowed Dilma to position herself as the champion of orthodoxy and fiscal responsibility, floating the possibility of a “positive shock” like that delivered by Lula in 2003, his first year in office.

Then, Lula enacted a partial reform of the public pensions system and cut public spending, before allowing it to expand thereafter. Dilma’s aides are promising to lower the government’s inflation target and increase its primary budget surplus (before debt payments – including those, the government is running a deficit). Whether this will be a short-term bid to win over investors or the beginnings of root and branch reform, Brazilians look very likely to find out soon.

segunda-feira, 16 de agosto de 2010

Stephen Krashen - Comprehensible Input

Estudo formal X Assimilação


LANGUAGE LEARNING (ESTUDO FORMAL)


O conceito de language learning está ligado à abordagem tradicional ao ensino de línguas, assim como é ainda hoje geralmente praticada nas escolas de ensino médio. A atenção volta-se à língua na sua forma escrita e o objetivo é o entendimento pelo aluno da estrutura e das regras do idioma através de esforço intelectual e de sua capacidade dedutivo-lógica. A forma tem importância igual ou maior do que a comunicação. Ensino e aprendizado são vistos como atividades num plano técnico-didático delimitado por conteúdo. Ensina-se a teoria na ausência da prática. Valoriza-se o correto e reprime-se o incorreto. Há pouco lugar para espontaneidade. O professor assume o papel de autoridade no assunto e a participação do aluno é predominantemente passiva. No caso do inglês ensina-se por exemplo o funcionamento dos modos interrogativo e negativo, verbos irregulares, modais, etc. O aluno aprende a construir frases no perfect tense, mas dificilmente saberá quando usá-lo.
É um processo progressivo e cumulativo, normalmente atrelado a um plano didático predeterminado, que inclui memorização de vocabulário e tem por objetivo proporcionar conhecimento metalinguístico. Ou seja, transmite ao aluno conhecimento a respeito da língua estrangeira, de seu funcionamento e de sua estrutura gramatical com suas irregularidades, de seus contrastes em relação à língua materna, conhecimento este que espera-se venha a se transformar na habilidade prática de entender e falar essa língua. Este esforço de acumular conhecimento torna-se frustrante na razão direta da falta de familiaridade com a língua.
Exemplo clássico de language learning são os inúmeros graduados em letras, já habilitados porém ainda com extrema dificuldade em se comunicarem na língua que teoricamente poderiam ensinar.


LANGUAGE ACQUISITION (ASSIMILAÇÃO)


Language acquisition refere-se ao processo de assimilação natural, intuitivo, subconsciente, fruto de interação em situações reais de convívio humano, em que o aprendiz participa como sujeito ativo. É semelhante ao processo de assimilação da língua materna pelas crianças; processo este que produz habilidade prático-funcional sobre a língua falada e não conhecimento teórico; desenvolve familiaridade com a característica fonética da língua, sua estruturação e seu vocabulário; é responsável pelo entendimento oral, pela capacidade de comunicação criativa, e pela identificação de valores culturais. Ensino e aprendizado são vistos como atividades que ocorrem num plano pessoal-psicológico. Uma abordagem inspirada em acquisition valoriza o ato comunicativo e desenvolve a autoconfiança do aprendiz.
Exemplo clássico de language acquisition são os adolescentes e jovens adultos que residem no exterior durante um ano através de programas de intercâmbio cultural, atingindo um grau de fluência na língua estrangeira próximo ao da língua materna, porém, na maioria dos casos, sem nenhum conhecimento a respeito do idioma. Não têm sequer noções de fonologia, nem sabem o que é perfect tense, verbos modais, ou phrasal verbs embora saibam usá-los intuitivamente.

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The Old Man At The Bridge


by Ernest Hemingway


An old man with steel rimmed spectacles and very dusty clothes sat by the side of the road. There was a pontoon bridge across the river and carts, trucks, and men, women and children were crossing it. The mule-drawn carts staggered up the steep bank from the bridge with soldiers helping push against the spokes of the wheels. The trucks ground up and away heading out of it all and the peasants plodded along in the ankle deep dust. But the old man sat there without moving. He was too tired to go any farther.
It was my business to cross the bridge, explore the bridgehead beyond and find out to what point the enemy had advanced. I did this and returned over the bridge. There were not so many carts now and very few people on foot, but the old man was still there.
"Where do you come from?" I asked him.
"From San Carlos," he said, and smiled.
That was his native town and so it gave him pleasure to mention it and he smiled.
"I was taking care of animals," he explained. "Oh," I said, not quite understanding.
"Yes," he said, "I stayed, you see, taking care of animals. I was the last one to leave the town of San Carlos."
He did not look like a shepherd nor a herdsman and I looked at his black dusty clothes and his gray dusty face and his steel rimmed spectacles and said, "What animals were they?"
"Various animals," he said, and shook his head. "I had to leave them."
I was watching the bridge and the African looking country of the Ebro Delta and wondering how long now it would be before we would see the enemy, and listening all the while for the first noises that would signal that ever mysterious event called contact, and the old man still sat there.
"What animals were they?" I asked.
"There were three animals altogether," he explained. "There were two goats and a cat and then there were four pairs of pigeons."
"And you had to leave them?" I asked.
"Yes. Because of the artillery. The captain told me to go because of the artillery."
"And you have no family?" I asked, watching the far end of the bridge where a few last carts were hurrying down the slope of the bank.
"No," he said, "only the animals I stated. The cat, of course, will be all right. A cat can look out for itself, but I cannot think what will become of the others."
"What politics have you?" I asked.
"I am without politics," he said. "I am seventy-six years old. I have come twelve kilometers now and I think now I can go no further." "This is not a good place to stop," I said. "If you can make it, there are trucks up the road where it forks for Tortosa."
"I will wait a while," he said, "and then I will go. Where do the trucks go?"
"Towards Barcelona," I told him.
"I know no one in that direction," he said, "but thank you very much. Thank you again very much."
He looked at me very blankly and tiredly, then said, having to share his worry with some one, "The cat will be all right, I am sure. There is no need to be unquiet about the cat. But the others. Now what do you think about the others?"
"Why they'll probably come through it all right." "You think so?"
"Why not," I said, watching the far bank where now there were no carts.
"But what will they do under the artillery when I was told to leave because of the artillery?"
"Did you leave the dove cage unlocked?" I asked. "Yes."
"Then they'll fly."
"Yes, certainly they'll fly. But the others. It's better not to think about the others," he said.
"If you are rested I would go," I urged. "Get up and try to walk now."
"Thank you," he said and got to his feet, swayed from side to side and then sat down backwards in the dust.
"I was taking care of animals," he said dully, but no longer to me. "I was only taking care of animals."
There was nothing to do about him. It was Easter Sunday and the Fascists were advancing toward the Ebro. It was a gray overcast day with a low ceiling so their planes were not up. That and the fact that cats know how to look after themselves was all the good luck that old man would ever have.

segunda-feira, 9 de agosto de 2010

quinta-feira, 29 de julho de 2010

Lee Evans Interview - BBC

A hipótese da ordem natural


A hipótese da ordem natural  (the natural order hypothesis)
autor:Stephen Krashen
tradução: Eduardo Portela

De acordo com a hipótese da ordem natural, adquirimos partes de uma lingua em uma ordem previsível. Alguns ítems gramaticais, por exemplo, tendem a ser adquiridos antes do que outros.


A ordem na qual adquirimos a primeira lingua é similar à ordem de aquisição do segundo idioma, porém não idênticas. É fato , por exemplo, que o gerúndio (terminação -ing; dancing, walking, eating)  é adquirido relativamente cedo na primeira lingua, enquanto que a terceira pessoa do singular (he, she, it) é adquirida posteriormente. A terceira pessoa do singular pode aparecer de seis meses a um ano após a aquisição do gerúndio.

Na aquisição de uma segunda lingua em adultos, o gerúndio também aparece relativamente cedo, mas a terceira pessoa do singular pode nunca aparecer.

É comum ouvir pessoas que falam Inglês muito bem como segunda lingua, mas que ainda não utilizam corretamente a terceira pessoa do singular.

Nem todos os alunos seguem a mesma ordem no processo de aquisição, ainda que essa variação não seja muito expressiva. Existe um claro ordenamento "padrão" da aquisição.

Há três fatos extraordinários sobre o fenômeno da ordem natural:

1- A ordem natural não é baseada em características óbvias de simplicidade e complexidade. Algumas regras que aparentam ser simples (ex. terceira pessoa do singular) só são adquiridas a posteriori. Outras regras aparentemente complexas aos olhos dos linguistas, são adquiridas antes. Isso representa um problema para os autores de livros que apresentam as regras numa escala da mais simples para a mais complexa. A regra pode parecer simples para um linguista, mas poderá ser adquirida só posteriormente.

2- A ordem natural não pode ser alterada. Ela é imune ao ensino deliberado. Não é possível alterar a ordem natural através de explicações, simulados, ou exercícios. O professor pode fazer chamada sobre a terceira pessoa do singular durante várias semanas, mas ela não será adquirida até que o aluno esteja pronto. Isso explica uma boa parte da frustração existente entre alunos de uma segunda lingua.

3- Com base no supracitado, podemos pensar que a solução do problema seria simplesmente a de ensinar na ordem natural; bastaria descobrir quais itens são aprendidos antes e quais são aprendidos depois. No entanto, a ordem natural não é a ordem de ensino (voltarei a esse tema posteriormente).

[...]

A teoria da informação compreensível  (The comprehensible input teory)

Se o professor é capaz de fornecer uma boa quantidade de informação compreensível para seus alunos, as estruturas que estão prontas para serem adquiridas já se encontram presentes nessas informações. Não é necessário verificar se elas estão realmente lá, não é necessário focar em determinados pontos gramaticais.

Antes de prosseguir, é necessário dizer que a precisão gramatical é uma meta importante. O que se discute aqui é como atingir essa meta. O argumento é: a melhor forma de atingir precisão gramatical é através da apresentação de conteúdos compreensíveis, em substituição à instrução gramatical direta.


Todos nós nos lembramos de aulas centradas na gramática. Os alunos focam em uma regra por vez, e quando esta tenha sido "dominada", passam para a próxima. Isso simplesmente não funciona:

1- E se o aluno faltar à uma aula? Se a aula é centralizada na gramática, esse aluno acaba de perder a "regra do dia". No entanto, se a aula é baseada em conteúdos compreensíveis, esse problema não existe. Toda aula contará com um rico fornecimento de gramática e vocabulário, e existirão muitas chances para que os alunos adquiram  esse conhecimento, enquanto que numa exposição gramatical há uma única chance - a não ser que sejam feitas revisões.

2- Ainda que todos nós passamos pelo mesmo processo de aquisição, existem variações individuais. Alguns alunos irão progredir mais rapidamente que outros. Alguns alunos adquirem linguagem fora da sala mais do que outros. Se a "regra do dia" for por exemplo o passado, é provável que alguns alunos já o tenham adquirido, enquanto que outros podem não estar prontos para isso. Com o método de informação compreensível, todos serão contemplados, ainda que o próximo passo não seja o mesmo. Não é necessário saber exatamente onde cada aluno se situa em termos de desenvolvimento linguístico; o que é necessário é fornecer o máximo de informação compreensível.

3- Para ensinar gramática, o professor precisa saber gramática, e essa é uma tarefa cada dia mais difícil. A cada nova descoberta, a cada nova regra gramatical e cada nova regra de competência sociolinguistica,  a grade curricular fica mais e mais complexa, e nunca irá terminar. No entanto, se a informação compreensível for farta, os alunos irão absorver as regras que os professores e os bons autores utilizam, mesmos eles não saibam conscientemente as regras gramaticais.

4- O problema mais sério com relação ao um ensino baseado em gramática é que ela é extremamente chata. É muito difícil dizer coisas interessantes e compreensíveis quando por trás disso existe uma agenda gramatical oculta.

(continua)